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LNG: a glance on future perspectives

In 2018 LNG production reached 316 million of tonnes, with a growth rate of 9.6% compared to 2017. A remarkable market expansion that, according to the projections is likely to progress in the close future: LNG production is expected to reach 361 million of tonnes in 2019, with an additional +14% compared to 2018, and almost 400 million of tonnes in 2020, 26% more compared to today’s data.

Behind 2018 numbers is the increasing global liquefaction capacity, along with LNG’s beneficial characteristic to be easily shipped, even across long routes. That is: more suppliers, more flexibility, more market. Not a minor advantage, if considered with the increasingly central role natural gas will have during energy transition towards renewables.

In 2018 Eastern Asia confirmed itself as the main LNG consumer, with a slight decrease of Japan’s LNG demand and a sharp increase of South Korea’s (+17%). However, China did drive LNG demand’s growth: the largest economy in Asia, in fact, imported 54 million of tonnes (+42% compared to 2017), as part of the Government’s policy aimed at enhancing national gas system and pursue decarbonization.

European LNG demand grew too during 2018, reaching 43 million of tonnes (+4 million tonnes, approximately 10%), and it is likely this trend keeps going throughout 2019. After all, the European Commission has been pointing out natural gas’ potential to foster EU industry for quite a long time now.

The above data provided by 2018 LNG Year in Review by ICIS, Independent Chemical Information Service, one of the largest energy market analysts.

Italy, despite having imported an overall gas amount of 67 billion of cubic meters, which represents a decrease in itself (-2.6 billion of cubic meters compared to 2017, data by Snam Rete Gas and Italian Ministry of Economic Development), keeps a positive trend in its LNG import: an increase mostly due to regasification tenders implemented in April 2018.

About 10% (~6.7 billion of cubic meters) of the overall gas imported, has passed through the Adriatic LNG regasification terminal, as a further confirm of its strategic role in Italy’s supply.

As concerns LNG offer, 2018 witnessed the arising of two actors that are likely to grow even more important during 2019. One is Australia and the other one is the US, which could get to control a 16% share of global LNG market by 2020 and to become an increasingly important supplier for Europe.